The Black Rod

The origin of the Usher of the Black Rod goes back to early fourteenth century England . Today, with no royal duties to perform, the Usher knocks on the doors of the House of Commons with the Black Rod at the start of Parliament to summon the members. The rod is a symbol for the authority of debate in the upper house. We of The Black Rod have since 2005, adopted the symbol to knock some sense and the right questions into the heads of Legislators, pundits, and other opinion makers.

Name:
Location: Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

We are citizen journalists in Winnipeg. When not breaking exclusive stories, we analyze news coverage by the mainstream media and highlight bias, ignorance, incompetence, flawed logic, missed angles and, where warranted, good work. We serve as the only overall news monitors in the province of Manitoba. We do the same with politicians (who require even more monitoring.) EMAIL: black_rod_usher@yahoo.com

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Manitoba Hydro is on its deathbed. There, we said it.


Manitoba Hydro is on its deathbed.

Oh, you won't find anyone official to say it. Yet.

Like relatives trying to appear cheery and optimistic around a loved one that's been diagnosed with terminal cancer, the people in power are in the first stage of grief -- denial.

The prognosis for Hydro was delivered three weeks ago at hearings before the Public Utilities Board where the utility was seeking punishingly higher rates for customers in Manitoba.

It took us this long to read through the hundred-plus pages of transcript, to decipher the coded language of the witnesses, to interpret what they were getting at, and, finally, to understand the terrible conclusion.  We couldn't believe it, just as, we're sure, you can't--- so we did it all again, to get a second opinion, so to speak. 

Hydro conceded to the PUB that it undertook a massive expansion program--- involving three (it was once four) new dams and two new major powerlines (one in the United States)---which it could not afford.

Bipole III, the outrageously expensive power line ($5 billion and counting) that was built to bring electricity from the new dams south to customers in the United States, will be hooked up and operating in July, 2018. That's when Manitoba Hydro is supposed to start paying back the money it borrowed to build the line and the accumulated interest.

The problem is that Hydro doesn't have the money to pay for Bipole III !

We'll repeat that slowly in case you still don't understand:

Manitoba Hydro
doesn't have
the money
to pay
for
Bipole III.

Three years later, in 2021,  the even more expensive Keeyask dam ($8.7 billion and counting) will go into service.  You guessed it...

Manitoba Hydro
doesn't have
the money
to pay
for
Keeyask

either.

How much money are we talking about?

* Hydro CEO Kelvin Shepherd told CJOB just this month that the utility needed $300 million a year to pay for Bipole III.  
* The PUB stated back in 2012 that when Keeyask came into service it would create additional annual costs for Manitoba Hydro of $500 million.  
* As you will soon see, shortfalls of $100 million here and $100 million there are inevitable.
* Which means that within four years, Hydro will need at least one billion dollars more each year to keep operating.

And the only dependable source for that money, they told the PUB three weeks ago, is Manitoba ratepayers. In other words --- YOU.

The utility needs a rate increase of 15-20 percent just to cover Bipole. The bill for the Keeyask generating station will be almost double, meaning that Hydro would need another rate hike, of 30 percent or more, which they want to apply in annual increments rather than all at once.

 But it still means your hydro bill with go up more than 50 percent, and likely much more, within four years.

Hydro told the PUB that it would already be in a financial crisis if it wasn't for two factors--low interest rates and high water.  

"To date, a financial crisis for Manitoba Hydro has -- coupled with rate shock for its customers, has been deferred due to two (2) factors, and those two (2)factors are entirely outside of Manitoba Hydro and this Board's control," said Hydro lawyer Patti Ramage.
 
Interest rates are the lowest they've been in 80 years. That's right, not since the mid nineteen-thirties.  But rates have started up. The federal bank rate was raised a quarter point in July and another rise is expected in the fall. The effect on Hydro will be devastating. Said Ramage:

"The project's (Bipole III) mostly complete.Regardless of accounting conventions, Manitoba Hydro is today borrowing cash for interest annually on the debt being borrowed to build the project. It's a huge number. We're talking 150 million, 175 million."
 
"...to make clear the fundamental reality of Manitoba Hydro's current financial situation. That reality is that we are borrowing money to fund our core Basic operations. That is an unsustainable practice...".
 
.".. interest expense will soon consume 70 odd percent of every domestic dollar. 70 percent of every domestic dollar is going to go to interest expense."
 
"It doesn't take much of an error on the interest rate forecast for that to move up to a hundred percent or more."
 
 "And we still have a business to run. We have to pay our operating costs, power purchases, water rentals, capital taxes, and by no means least of all, we have to replenish aging infrastructure."
 
And as for its impact on the capital projects...

"... Manitoba Hydro has $12 billion to borrow over the next five (5) years. Extremely modest increases in borrowing costs against plan can quickly reduce Manitoba Hydro's income by fifty (50) to even a hundred million dollars per year."
 
The PUB was told that Manitoba Hydro would have lost money this year and the two years previous if it wasn't for unusually high water levels. Ramage again:
 
"Manitoba Hydro will, in 2017, enjoy its fourteenth(14th) consecutive year of above-average water flows which is a wet period almost three (3) times the duration of the next largest period -- next longest period in well over a century of recorded history."
 
"... by any measure, Manitoba Hydro is in a cash deficit position. Without the benefit of high water, this deficit is in the order of 250 to $300 million per year, meaning rates today are 15 to 20 percent too low if Manitoba Hydro's ratepayers are held to be responsible for the cost of its -- of operating the system."
 
"So those two (2) factors... are what have been saving Manitoba Hydro, and those factors are not factors that we can count on to continue. "
 
Manitoba Hydro has known for years that it wasn't going to be able to pay for the massive expansion it had undertaken unless there was a miraculous return to the good ol' days when hydro power was in demand and even spot prices were sky high.
 
They gambled on that, until they ran out of time, money and luck.
 
Spot prices for electricity are now anywhere from 30 to 35 percent lower than forecast even two years ago. Hydro has written off $850 million in anticipated export revenue over the next ten years as a result.
 
Domestic revenue isn't any better. Growth in Manitoba has been so slow that Hydro predicted domestic revenue would be $900 million less over 10 years unless they got the huge rate increases they want.
 
Sales of power outside of Manitoba are so uncertain that Hydro has scrapped the premiums it used to charge for dependable "green" energy and "capacity values"
 
"...it is not prudent to assume as a planning tool that Manitoba Hydro is able to enter into new long-term export contracts, particularly into markets like MISO (the midwest energy exchange that links 15 American states plus Manitoba...ed) that are awash in energy." Hydro told the PUB.

Manitoba Hydro plans to save $500 million over the long-run by a new debt management strategy.

" Manitoba Hydro changed its debt management strategy to target a twelve (12) year term to maturity on new issuances instead of twenty (20) years."
 
"This is a strategy that only makes sense if there is an expectation of having income and cash -- income and the cash flow necessary to permanently retire shorter- term debt as it becomes due."
 
"We have to able to retire that debt when it becomes due or that strategy doesn't make sense. And that strategy is a $500 million saving, but it doesn't work if we don't have the cash at the end of the day to retire it. And that cash can only come from higher rates." said Patti Ramage.

Manitoba Hydro's submission to the Public Utilities Board included a recognition that its debt rating was in danger.  The province of Manitoba has had its credit rating cut twice within a year and now stands two ranks above junk bond status.  Hydro's debt rivals the provincial debt.

Two years ago Hydro defiantly defended its plan to keep borrowing money for expansion even if its debt-to-equity ratio dropped to 90-10, with the risk that a drought would devour even that last 10 percent of equity, leaving the utility insolvent.

But Hydro was much more contrite before the PUB in 2017, stressing how it needed the large rate hikes to plump up the debt-to-equity ratio and satisfy skeptical credit rating agencies. The goal now is to keep the debt-to-equity ratio at 75-25.

Or else.

But, but, but... if the Public Utilities Board knows all this, why did they grant a small (3.36 percent)  interim rate increase, and put off dealing with the big problem until December's hearing?

The answer lies in Hydro's opening gambit in the July hearing.

Hydro lawyers came in telling the PUB it had no choice but to grant Hydro's application for a 7.9 percent interim rate hike.

 No choice.

They even had a higher court ruling to back them up.  Citing that court decision they declared that the financial health of Manitoba Hydro had to be preserved at all costs. And that meant that other considerations, such as the impact of the rate hike on the poor, the elderly, and those unfortunate enough to use electricity to heat their homes, had to be overridden.

Hydro's message was unmistakeable: If a 50 percent jump in hydro rates was going to make the poor and elderly suffer, then that's their tough luck. 

The provincial utility is playing chicken with the provincial government.  Remember, they asked the province to bail them out with an infusion of money, and got a negative answer. 

So they're gambling now that Brian Pallister will be forced to rescue the unfortunates who can't afford the hikes Hydro plans.

The members of the PUB must see the brinksmanship at play. They decided to pass the buck to December and give the province time to decide what to do.

In the meantime, the writing is on the wall.

Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin

Labels: , , , ,

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Tick tock, tick tock. The clock is running out on failing Premier Brian Pallister.



You know things are really slow in the news business when pundits are reduced to speculating on who will be the next leader of the Liberals in Manitoba, a bunch that hasn't elected enough MLA's to be an official party in the Legislature since 1995.

And on who is running or not running to be leader of the NDP, a party repudiated so massively by the electorate that any conjectured return to government can be measured in decades, not years.

The public would be better served by a discussion of who will replace Brian Pallister as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba---and hence  become Premier of the province---because Pallister's number is coming up fast.
 
Its not his age, although he will be 65 and collecting an old-age pension when the next provincial election rolls around.
 
No, Pallister's future will be determined next year---and you can spell it P-S-T.
 
A hike of the provincial sales tax by one percentage point doomed the NDP government. And a failure to reverse the hike will end Brian Pallister's  premiership. Except that he thinks he's got four years to deliver on his campaign promise. Call that delusional.
 
He campaigned on the fact that the NDP was taking $5 million a week out of the pockets of Manitobans after increasing the PST by one percentage point without holding a referendum as required by law. And yet he's in no hurry to reverse that tax grab.
 
The NDP was at least honest when they picked our pockets. They just wanted more money to spend, spend, spend and spend.  Brian Pallister has proved he's just as big a liar as Greg Selinger who swore he had no plan to raise the provincial sales tax, just before he raised the provincial sales tax. Pallister swore to reverse the PST hike, but when elected he, ahem, explained that he meant he would do it in his first term of office-- four years. 

By that time he will have taken as much or more money from Manitobans as the NDP.
 
The conservative bedrock of the P.C. Party was stabbed in the back by Pallister when he announced in his first budget he intended to run high deficits for eight years at the very least. He demonstrated that his idea of fiscal responsibility was to spend more and spend longer than the NDP.  We see now why he never repudiated his predecessor Hugh McFadyen's 2011 Go-Left campaign to win by outspending the NDP.
 
He simply adopted the plan but hid it from voters until it was too late.
 
The people who voted the NDP out and Tories in will give the new government a bye for not tackling the PST in its first year in office. The province's finances are in enough disarray thanks to the gross incompetence of the NDP and it will take at least a year just to learn the true extent of the disaster. We've already seen a credit downgrade by a second bond rating agency because the Conservatives have demonstrated no urgency to address the deficit crisis that the NDP left behind.
 
But seeing Pallister's second budget with the PST increase firmly in place means he must --- repeat, must --- cut the PST next year or he will cut his own throat  (politically speaking). Going into Year Three --- don't even mention Year 4 --- with an 8 percent PST is not an option for him or the PC Party.
 
If he keeps making excuses as to why he won't roll back the PST he will alienate the moderate voters who elected the Tories. He will become as big a hypocrite as NDP leader Greg Selinger. Pallister promised to rescind the increase in the last election campaign, and the public believes he meant asap, not before the next election.
 
It's becoming apparent that Pallister intends to replace the one-per-cent PST increase---the Pallister Sales Tax---with a carbon tax.  

In other words, the public will see no benefit to a reduction on paper of the sales tax when the cost of everything goes up as much or more thanks to the PCT---the Pallister Carbon Tax.
 
Unfortunately, Pallister, like all politicians, may be thinking he's smarter than everyone. (See Winnipeg mayor Brian Bowman who thinks he's ever so clever by raising frontage fees and sewer taxes to get around his pledge not to hike property taxes more than the rate of inflation. )
 
If he fails to cut the PST to 7 percent in 2018 or introduces a carbon tax, Pallister is toast.
 
The public wanted the NDP thrown out in 2011, but the fiscal conservative Tories couldn't stomach Hugh McFadyen's plan to spend more irresponsibly than the NDP so they stayed home. But four years later, they came out, held their noses, and handed the NDP its worst defeat ever.
 
The NDP is not a threat now or in the future.  The rump that was left after the voters got through with them has become a gong show. The interim  leader can barely speak English; the former leader who led the party over the cliff is still there and unrepentant; the only two people who announced their candidacy for leader have been the organizer of the Gay Pride Parade in Steinbach and a former rapper who slurred gay people in his lyrics. (She quit and he's sorry.)
 
But if the NDP's traditional vote returns, they could win back 10 seats in the next election.  It's not enough to return to office, but it would be a shock to the system for the Tories.
 
That's why the long knives will be out for Brian Pallister if he delivers another budget without a reduction in the PST. 

Internal revolt is a bloody affair and even if you win, you lose. Ask Greg Selinger.
 
Forget who may run to lead the Liberals. Who is in the wings to step over Pallister should he show the same hubris as Greg Selinger?

Labels: , ,

Thursday, April 20, 2017

What happens when you scrap crimefighting for social work


Former Winnipeg police chief Devon Clunis weathered a lot of ridicule when he talked about the role of  prayer in fighting crime.

Well, look who's laughing now?

Winnipeggers have taken his words to heart, and they're praying up a storm.

People are praying they don't get shot. Or murdered. Or robbed at work. Or mugged on the street. Or have their cars stolen.

A perusal of the police department's Crimestat page shows the dismal legacy of Clunis' hug-a-thug social work policing, which has been embraced whole-heartedly by the Winnipeg police commission and new police chief Danny Smythe. 
The stats compare this year to last, New Year's Day to April 15:

Homicides, 9 this year, 6 last.

Shootings, up 82 percent.  A whopping 31 this year, 17 last.

Commercial robberies, up 53 percent to 150 this year, 98 last.

Muggings, 336 this year, 261 last, an increase of 29 percent.

Commercial break-ins, 355 compared to 245 in '16.  (A 45% increase.)

Residential break-ins,  only up 8 percent. 500 compared to 465.

Motor vehicle theft, you know, the "success" story that's regularly trotted out by police and pundits alike, up 34 percent year over year.  484 this year, 362 last.

And the good news? Reported sexual assaults down from 36 to 28. And attempted car theft down 15%.  

Of course, these are exactly the offences that people don't report.

Take the nine crimes highlighted on Crimestat, add up the reported incidents, and the total shows crime is up post-Clunis by 21 percent. 

Somebody call a social worker. We need a hug.

Labels: , , , ,

Wednesday, April 05, 2017

Fake News is so yesterday


By now you've heard about Fake News. But the Winnipeg Free Press has taken the concept a step further and has introduced Fake Views.

What's that, you ask?  Read on.

The MSM is well aware that the news consuming public knows the tricks of Fake News and has no hesitation in outing biased opinion that's presented as "news".  The WFP gets called out every day on their comments pages.

So the Free Press has decided to re-package fake news as opinion or viewpoints, or even 'analysis' to give themselves deniability when the public points out that the story spins like a top.  'It's not us, it's the writer's opinion,' they can safely bleat, they think.

This weekend the FP ran a piece of "analysis" on their editorial pages headlined "Manitobans favour putting price on carbon."

The title was so absurd, we had to read further.

It turns out the piece was written by Curtis Brown, a familiar name to Winnipeggers.  He used to provide his leftist spin for Manitoba-based Probe Research, but is now " a senior research associate with Environics Research."

Apparently his research has proved that "Manitobans favour putting (a) price on carbon."  Or so you would think.  His findings:

* almost everyone in Manitoba is extremely, definitely, somewhat, kinda, li'l bit, concerned about climate change, whatever that nebulous term means.
* a teeny-weeny bit more than half of Manitobans believe that government can reduce carbon emissions at least a teeny-weeny bit

* of course, at the same time,  Manitobans wouldn't be surprised if government strategies don't do a thing and that  a carbon tax is actually a cash grab . 
* still, says Brown, nearly sixty percent of Manitobans welcome a carbon tax with ten percent (give or take) strongly in favour and 25 percent strongly against.

Red flags, anyone?  First, there is no link to this alleged "research."  Suspicious? You bet.

Second, the article breaks the cardinal rule of reporting on polls which require you to publish the questions asked, the order of the questions and the margin of error. 

It's soon obvious why these are missing. The "research" involves "about 150" people in Manitoba.  

A sample size this tiny gives a margin of error somewhere between "April Fool's" and "flip a coin."

So we dug a little deeper. And hit paydirt.

They say Google is your friend, and our friend told us:

"Michael Adams is the president of the Environics group of research and communications consulting companies which he co-founded in 1970... In 1987 Environics launched Canada’s first syndicated public opinion survey on the environment (The Environmental Monitor), which in 2007 evolved into the Canadian Environmental Barometer, Canada’s leading syndicated tracking public opinion survey on environmental issues. He also serves on Ontario Premier’s Climate Change Advisory Panel, on the Steering Committee of Sustainable Prosperity and on the advisory committee of Carbon Talks."

And what is Carbon Talks?

"Carbon Talks is a partnership with Simon Fraser University’s Centre for Dialogue, in collaboration with SFU’s Beedie School of Business, the School for Public Policy and the School for International Studies. Our goal is to advance Canadian global competitiveness by shifting to a low-carbon economy."

"There are a number of forums and initiatives within Canada to generate ideas about how to shift to a low-carbon economy, but there are few processes that focus on accelerating action. Carbon Talks looks for the strategic entry points where convening key participants can be effective. We work with partners to move groups from intent to action and we support this work through fact-based research and analysis."

In short, good ol' Curtis Brown works for a company that's in the business of hyping carbon taxes. 

And the Winnipeg Free Press is in the business of hyping the hype under the guise of "analysis."  

Step aside Fake News, there's Fake Views to sell.

Labels: , , ,

Thursday, March 02, 2017

Winnipeg "integrity commissioner" under fire; politicians turn a blind eye



How dysfunctional is Winnipeg as a city? 

You mean apart from the former mayor and his hand-picked chief civil servant being investigated for taking (alleged) kickbacks on -- wait for it -- the construction of a new police department headquarters?

Or the shiny new $300 million water treatment plant plagued by exploding generators and a leaky roof, a scenario straight out of The Simpsons?

Or the fancy replacement football stadium that was built to take the team out of debt by generating so much more revenue only to mire the team in inescapable debt for the next 50 years because of the cost?

Well, how about this...

Winnipeg's newly anointed "Integrity Commissioner" was hired last week despite being enveloped in a cloud of controversy involving a blatant breach of privacy and a shameless violation of confidentiality.

What?

You didn't hear a word about that in the news stories promoting lawyer Sherri Walsh in her new post?

That means you didn't hear that a newly-uncovered provincial government document fingers Walsh as the sole suspect in exposing the names of a group of staff members and clients of the  Native Women’s Transition Centre, who were pleading for relief from "bullying, verbal abuse, harassment and laterally violent behaviors" that had turned the centre into a toxic workplace.

Their complaints were against the centre's executive director, Katherine Morrisseau-Sinclair. Who happens to be the wife of Judge Murray Sinclair, now a Trudeau appointed Canadian Senator.

A bundle of written complaints against Katherine Sinclair were provided to Walsh in along with a letter from Joy Cramer, Deputy Minister, Family Services, stating "I am forwarding these letters on the understanding that these are strictly confidential..."

The women discovered within a week that their names had been handed to the very person they were complaining about, leaving them open to retaliation.  The women were eventually notified by the Department that only two people had access to the letters of complaint, and one of them had been cleared. 

The other? Sherri Walsh.

Cramer promised an investigation into how their names were leaked. The women are still waiting to hear back from her. It’ll be a long wait considering she was invited to leave the Legislature by the new Pallister government and departed.

Walsh became chairman of the NWTC in on June 1st, 2015. Two weeks later she was informed of the turmoil within the provincially-funded centre and advised by Joy Cramer that  the issues "require immediate attention." It was mid-July when the confidentiality promised the women who were complaining was violated, while Walsh had done nothing to alleviate or investigate the situation.

According to documents uncovered by a freedom-of-information request, the province went back to Walsh two months later, in September, to say that even more complaints about the NWTC had been received. Walsh informed the province she didn't want to be “micromanaged” and HR concerns about Mrs. Sinclair should be sent along to … her.

By mid-December 2015, the women had had enough. Employees made a formal complaint to Workplace Health and Safety about the toxic workplace at the NWTC and filed it with the Board, chaired by Walsh. 

Lo and behold, early in the new year they learned, from Sherri Walsh, no less,  that Katherine Morrisseau-Sinclair had resigned and, guess what, an investigation of their complaints was “not warranted’. Within weeks, her husband, the Judge became her husband, the Senator.

The government documents tell a depressing story. 
·        A prominent lawyer is appointed to head a government-funded native women's agency. 
·        She's told there are personnel issues that require immediate attention.
·        She turns a blind eye to the mismanagement of the agency for seven months, telling the government she doesn't want to be micromanaged when they inform her of continuing complaints against the centre's executive director. 
·        She's provided with written complaints in strictest confidence, only to have the names of the complainers leaked to the person in position to retaliate against them.
·        She gives short shrift to powerless native women seeking help but does nothing to inconvenience the personally- and politically-connected native woman that's creating havoc within the organization.

You might think this would raise questions about her qualifications for the job of "integrity commissioner". 

If members of the three-person committee charged with picking the "best" candidate for the job—councillors Mike Pagtakhan, Matt Allard and Devi Sharma---were aware of Walsh's performance with the Native Women's Transition Centre before recommending her to executive policy committee, it didn't bother them.

And Mayor Brian Bowman, who purports to be a "privacy lawyer", also knew about the allegations against Walsh involving breach of privacy and violation of confidentiality before bringing her name to city council to rubberstamp.  He heard all about it at the EPC meeting the week before.

Bowman, who never fails to raise his aboriginal heritage when it’s politically convenient, showed such contempt for one of the native women from the NWTC who appeared before Council to object to Walsh's appointment, that he walked out of the council chambers in front of her as she tried to speak. 

She was suddenly shut down by the council speaker, Sharma, on a procedural loophole.

Dysfunctional? Why would you say that?

Labels: , , , ,

Sunday, February 19, 2017

Do you want to understand Donald Trump, past, present, and future? Read this.




Ten years ago New York real estate developer Donald Trump wrote a book called 'Trump. Think Big and Kick Ass'.

Today he's President of the United States of America Donald Trump.

And the line of people with sore asses includes Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, the entire Democratic Party, the Republican Party establishment, and pretty much most of the news media.  They should have read his book.

We did.

To help you understand Donald Trump past, present and future, we've culled  thirty-three Trump tips to attain the top:

* I love to crush the other side and take the benefits. Why? Because there is nothing greater. For me it is even better than sex, and I love sex.

* In a great deal you win---not the other side. You crush your opponent and come away with something better for yourself. In negotiations I go for the complete win.

* I have learned that it is important to focus on the solution, not the problem. If you put all your energy into the problem, how much passion do you have left for finding a solution?

* ...learning from someone else's mistakes is faster and easier than making them yourself.

* ...if you want to be successful in business and in life, never, ever give up. Never quit. You can never be successful if you give up.

* Handle pressure by learning not to dwell on negative thoughts and opinions of others.

* You will have your biggest successes when you go against the tide.

* Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel, once said,"Dive deep into the data, then trust your gut." I think this best describes my approach to decision making.

* ...go with your gut, but do not bet the ranch on it...Get all the facts, because there is a reason why everyone else is going the other way.

* Acting uncertain often makes my opponents push their arguments for the deal more strongly, playing right into my hands. It also gives me time to sit back and come up with creative options that help me close a better deal than I could if I just plunged right in. I could negotiate peace in the Middle East---very few other people could.

* When luck is on your side it is not the time to be modest or timid. It is the time to go for the biggest success you can possible achieve. This is the true meaning of thinking big.

* Every time a negative thought comes to you, zap it. Replace it with a positive thought...the result will be stamina, positive stamina, a necessary ingredient for success.

* Positive thinking is not merely wishful thinking. It is all about incorporating a sense of optimism into everything you do while also acknowledging the negative...Learn how to be optimistic even in the face of large and intimidating challenges and it will revolutionize your life.

* Do not give in to anger...Sure, you have to be tough, but out-of-control anger is not toughness, it is weakness.

* You cannot expect to be successful 100 percent of the time...There are always circumstances beyond your control. The only way to guard against having your confidence shattered is to come to grips with the stark reality that negative things can and do happen...Do not let it shake your self-confidence one iota.

* When somebody takes a cheap shot at you do not be afraid to fire back...Go for the jugular. Attack them back in spades.

*  Always get even. When somebody screws you, screw them back in spades... This is not your typical advice...but this is real-life advice. If you don't get even, you are just a schmuck! I really mean it, too.

* When you are wronged, go after those people because it is a good feeling and because other people wil see you doing it...When other people see that you don't take crap and see you are really going after somebody for wronging you, they will respect you.

* You should never sell out your friends.

* ...nobody is more dishonest than the press.

* I could give you the names of ten to twenty of the greatest deal-makers in the world who live in this country. These great negotiators could go up against China or Iran and work out a fabulous deal for the United States.

* I try to hire people who are honest and loyal...I value loyalty above everything else---more than brains, more than drive, and more than energy.

* Always keep fighting! You never know when there is another chance or another great opportunity waiting right around the corner...My motto is: "never give up!"

* ...you have to maintain your focus and keep building your momentum at all times. Your problems can be temporary if you keep you momentum moving forward.

* Do not be afraid of mistakes and setbacks, because they are your best teachers.

* I pride mystelf on being obstinate, stubborn and tough. I think those are important qualities found in successful people.

* Worry destroys focus... He or she who focuses the longest wins.

* Do not look for approval from others. This is a sure sign of weakness.

* Doubt saps your will to succeed and signals to everyone involved that you are going to fail.

* A failure or setback is not a defeat... You are defeated only when you accept defeat and assume the hopeless mind-set of a defeated person...Never let a setback defeat you emotionally to the point that you draw negative self-deprecating conclusions like, "I'll never make it. I'm a loser. I might as well give up. All my critics were right."

* Do not spend too much time planning or trying to anticipate and solve problems before they happen...Until you start, you won't know where the problems will occur. You won't have the experience to solve them. Instead, get into action, and solve the problems as they arise.

* Give your goals values that are not monetary.

* Take great joy in doing a great job. "

Labels: , ,

Monday, February 13, 2017

Don't Believe Zane Tessler. Mark Dicesare Did Not Have to be Killed.


Justifying the killing of an innocent person is messy business.

The man who heads the body that investigates police when someone is killed or injured by them put as much polish as he could Friday on the official report into the Winnipeg police shooting of Mark Dicesare.

Zane Tessler, director of the Independent Investigation Unit of Manitoba, said the five policemen who shot Dicesare to pieces at point blank range had no other choice.

The evidence was clear, said Tessler, that the distraught 24-year-old had seen his world fall apart; he felt he had nothing to live for; and he intended to kill himself, eventually choosing to get police to do it for him by threatening them with a fake machinegun.

If the story was so cut-and-dried, why did Tessler chose to smother it in spin?

Was it to hide the clusterf*ck that immediately preceeded the fatal shooting?

For the uninitiated, clusterf*ck means  (to quote Wiktionary) "A chaotic situation where everything seems to go wrong. It is often caused by incompetence, communication failure, or a complex environment."

Here's a snapshot of the chaotic moments before Dicesare was killed:

* after his car was stopped at the Kapyong barracks site, he was surrounded by 19 police cars and 29 armed police officers. Many of them didn't know who was in charge.

* the siren of the cop car parked at the driver's door of Dicesare's car kept blaring for 20 minutes, drowning out attempts to talk to him. It was finally shut off less than 3 minutes before the final shooting.

* once the siren was turned off, so many officers began yelling instructions to Dicesare that the ranking supervisor at the scene had to personally make his way over to them to tell them to shut up.

* the officer who shot Dicesare with a shotgun from 10 feet away was not authorized to use the weapon. He said in his heavily lawyered statement that he thought his shots hit the police car behind which he was hiding. The autopsy on Dicesare showed he was struck by one shotgun slug round and sprayed with pellets from another. The officer said his partner told him a slug round "would be better suited to travel through material like a car door as opposed to double ought buck rounds.”

Tessler repeatedly said Dicesare carried a firearm.  No he didn't.

He carried a BB gun. A BB gun doesn't fire bullets. We're guessing that deploying half the police force to trap and kill a man with a BB gun doesn't have the same macho narrative, especially for the Winnipeg Tactical Support Team (the local name for the Swat team) which got to claim their first kill after almost 9 years in operation.

But, but, but...the police didn't know it was a fake gun. They had every reason to act as if it was a real Uzi.  True.  But 20 seconds before the fatal shooting, an observant officer went on radio to inform everyone at the scene that Dicesare's weapon had no attached magazine. That meant that at best he could fire one shot that might already be loaded even if it was a real gun, something Tessler failed to say.

Tessler made much of numbers. A 911 call lasting 32 minutes. 33 demands to drop the gun and give up. He failed to say that Dicesare only spoke to 911 operators for about 10 minutes, during which he said at least three times he did not intend to hurt any police officers, only himself. 
 
Then after stopping his car he threw his phone out the window where it lay on the ground but the line was kept open. A police siren screaming a few feet away from him distracted him for the next 20 minutes, drowning out most of those demands to "drop the gun".

Tessler's report reads like a prosecutor's brief, not an honest reflection of what actually happened
.  Which isn't surprising given Tessler's background as--wait for it---a crown prosecutor who works daily with police and has to trust them to build his cases.

Other tidbits gleaned from the report:

* Four of the five policemen who killed Dicesare refused to cooperate with IIU investigators. They provided heavily lawyered statements, then clammed up.

* Dicesare led police on a high-speed chase that was straight out of Animal House. A line of 15 police cars was seen racing after him. One cop car dropped out after being damaged making a u-turn. Two cars pinned Dicesare between them but he managed to push his way out. He hit three private cars during the chase and one police cruiser hit him. It rear-ended his car when he stopped abruptly, causing the air bag to open in the driver's face, knocking him out of the pursuit.

 * In his news conference, Tessler kept using the word "carbine" to describe the weapon used by police to shoot Dicesare.  A carbine is a rifle.  Police shot Dicesare six times with their rifles, twice with handguns and once with a shotgun. At a distance of 15 to 30 feet---less than the length of a Winnipeg transit bus.  The officer who hit him twice with his pistol fired 4-5 shots.

* An officer wanted to use a Taser on Dicesare but couldn't get close enough for a clear shot. Another said he didn't have time to get other non-lethal tools like a bean-bag gun. A dog handler was on the scene, but didn't want to send the dog on a "suicide mission."

* Unintended humor and irony dot the report.  The officer who shot Dicesare three times with his rifle in the "centre of mass", intending to kill him, then went over to give him CPR.  A second shooter, who hit Dicesare twice with his rifle, said in his prepared statement that he "noted an immediate change in (Dicesare's) behaviour" after the man was blasted by rifle fire, a handgun and a shotgun.

An inquest has been called at which a Crown attorney will say that the police had no other choice but to shoot and kill Mark Dicesare.

But they did.

At least four of the police officers surrounding Dicesare had their rifles at the ready for the better part of 23 minutes.  Their rifles are supplied with iron sights, designed for accurate fire to 100 yards or more. Shooting at a stationary target 30 feet away is a turkey shoot.

Individual police officers are told not to be cowboys thinking they can shot a suspect in the arm or leg like they do on TV.  If they shoot, they shoot to kill, concentrating their shots on the "centre of mass" where a bullet is likely to hit the heart, lungs or major arteries.

But rifles are not handguns. They are designed to hit something from much further away. An incident leader could have ordered any one of the riflemen to take aim from a safe distance and shoot Dicesare in the arm, leg, or even his weapon.


He did not have to be killed.  The police did have another choice.

Labels: , ,